Vlad Jr. said what now? No, I'm not talking about his infamous quote, "Last year was a trailer; now you guys will see the movie," before Opening Day 2022.
I'm talking about yet another catchy season preview summary from Vladimir Guerrero Jr: "I've said this since last year -- that this is my season, and that this is when people are going to know about me."
I guess he's got a thing for pre-season #bars. However, he is right so far. MLB The Show announced this week that Guerrero is the cover athlete for 2024's release of the annual baseball game. That's a good start, Vlad.
Since this is the year of Vlad, how does he transition his off-field success to the batter's box where it matters more? We're talking about a former #1 prospect, 3x All-Star, and American League MVP runner-up who fell just short of the one and only Shohei Ohtani in 2021. He also led the American League in most offensive statistics that same season. He hit 30 home runs and won a Gold Glove at first base the following season. In 2023, he struggled for the first time in a season where he played 125 games or more. So, how will 2024 fare for the young star?
Source: Cut4 of MLB.com
Here's what projections say
Now entering his age-25 season, Vladdy's projections are favorable despite being lower than his MVP-caliber season a few years ago. We'll go with traditional stats here as we dive into advanced metrics later.
ZiPS: .278 AVG, .357 OBP, .492 SLG, .849 OPS, 31 HR, 100 RBI
Reference: .285 AVG, .364 OBP, .508 SLG, .872 OPS, 30 HR, 89 RBI
According to projections, ZiPS is more favorable with his run production, which has him finishing below his career high of 111 RBI. With the recent acquisition of ageless wonder Justin Turner projected to hit behind him, Vlad can see more hittable pitches with this added protection.
Baseball Reference slightly favors his batting overall, but it will only come with 89 RBI. Reference believes Guerrero will need more runners on base in the form of George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Kevin Kiermaier, and not worrying about who is hitting behind him.
Standard stats have our star as an above-average everyday bat, but there are concerns about Vladimir putting together underwhelming campaigns since his peak in 2021. Let's take a look at Statcast to uncover some trends.
Statcast is saying:
The slugger may be unlucky. His expected batting average of .294 versus his actual of .264 suggests that more of his batted balls should've landed for hits. A .294 xBA is in the top 5% in the Majors.
Driving the ball up the middle of the field typically leads to good fortune, but even in batted-ball situations, Vlad had many result in outs, outs, and more outs. You must remind yourself that in this sport, it's sometimes about the approach, not necessarily the result.
His approach led to his lowest strikeout percentage of his career at 14.7% as he reduced the swing and miss in his game with fewer whiffs than any other season of his young career. If he can lower his chase rate, we may be looking at a return to true form.
What needs to happen in 2024:
With limited defensive value at first base, the expectation is that Jr. reverts to a premier slugger in this league. His impending free agency after the 2025 season becomes a factor because teams will want more consistency before imploding their payroll to acquire him. We see players' markets this offseason suffering from inconsistencies in their game. It is now fair to question how long the Blue Jay's window of contention will last, so Vladimir's evolution into a superstar is critical.
"All I know is how to hit fastballs and curveballs," said Guererro, according to TSN, and he will need to do what he knows best to bounce back this season. Guererro was less productive against fastballs in 2022 and 2023, declining from a .808 slugging percentage in 2021 to .582 and then .465, respectively. Curveballs, however, fill Vladdy with joy. In 2023, his expected slugging percentage versus curves sat at a hefty .662, the best of his career.
If Guererro Jr. continues to keep a similar approach at the plate, there's no reason he shouldn't remain productive and perform like one of the better first base options out there. He says "I feel 100% -- And I feel 150% about getting back to who I was." It's time, now, to prove that is the case.
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