With the big fish finally falling off the board in a pair of billionaire dollar, earth-shattering signings in Los Angeles -- the pitching market is developing before our eyes.
Chris Sale is no longer in Boston? Lucas Giolito lands in one of the most home-run-friendly stadiums in the Majors one season after leading the American League in home runs allowed. And the small-town Reds snag a former Yankee to supplement a young rotation.
All three signings involve high-risk, high-reward arms, with organizations banking on the upside rather than focusing on disturbing trends.
Let's get up to speed, shall we?
Source: Sports Illustrated
Sale is now an Atlanta Brave
In days past, Chris Sale was one of the premier lefties in baseball by dominating batters with his swing-and-miss arsenal that left guys shaking their heads in the batter's box. This decade, however, has yet to be kind to the slender-framed hurler. Sale has become oft-injured, unfortunately, landing on the injured list every season since his Tommy John surgery in 2020.
Fast forward to 2024, and Chris is now entering his age-35 season, becomes a free agent in 2025, and also took a top prospect with six years of team control to acquire.
So why would Atlanta take on the risk? Well, here's the thing. What if I told you the Braves only have to pay Mr. Sale $500,000 during the 2024 season? The Boston Red Sox will sweeten the deal by covering $17MM of Sale's $27.5MM remaining on his contract, with another $10MM deferral until 2039 that Boston will also pay - essentially giving him away to Atlanta.
It takes letting go of top infield prospect Vaughn Grissom, but the Braves' logjam of talent blocks Vaughn from playing time anyway. Acquiring Jerred Kelenic last month and slotting him into left further complicated the puzzle leading to Vaughn's inevitable departure.
Atlanta makes deals with one thing in mind, and that's championships. General manager Alex Anthopoulous believes in Sale's ability to create whiffs. With the splashes the Dodgers continue making, the Braves must keep pace. If they can bubble-wrap Chris Sale until October and unwrap their shiny new toy amid a playoff run, you may be looking at another World Series team in Atlanta.
Lucas Giolito lands on the Red Sox
Giolito had a nightmare season in 2023—a season that ended with him entering the free-agent market. Despite the highs and the lows, he still signs a solid deal this winter.
Remember, he is only 29 years old, and while his 2022 and 2023 campaigns won't entice you, banking on his durability and strikeout rate is enticing. He has pitched at least 160 innings every season since 2018 (excluding 2020) and 9.8 K/9 during that span.
Coming into the 2023 season, the expectation was he could get a contract surpassing $100MM over several years. Instead, it ends in a $38.5MM for two years.
Gio will earn $18MM this upcoming season tacts on a player option in 2024, meaning he can test the market again next winter if his stock rises. It also includes a $1MM buyout. Boston now reaps the benefits of a bounce-back, plus the possibility of keeping Giolito if he enjoys being a part of the organization. That is the best-case scenario for a Boston team hoping to build a reliable and sustainable rotation. Over the years, Boston continues to finish at the bottom of the league in starting pitching.
With Chris Sale’s unexpected departure, they essentially replace him with Giolito and trust Giolito’s upside and innings-eating history. The fact that the Red Sox are losing capital by paying down a chunk of Sale’s contract means they had to buy lower; Giolito gives you as much bang for your buck as anyone on the market.
However, there is the risk of him continuing to trend downward, likely resulting in him opting in for 2024 and having him pitch poorly for two seasons. Red Sox can extend a qualifying offer to receive a draft pick if Giolito signs elsewhere.
The Reds make their move
A one-year, $16MM deal for a mid-market team sounds preposterous. Yet, that is what the Reds will spend to acquire free-agent right-hander Frankie Montas.
The last time we saw Frankie Montas pitching was in 2022, when the Yankees acquired him in a six-player deal at the trade deadline. His short stint with them didn’t go well, as he pitched to a 62 ERA+, making him less effective than 38% of the league average. Mind you, he only pitched in 39.2 innings, so the Reds are taking it with a grain of salt.
Reds may be looking back at his 2021 season and thinking they may find lightning in a bottle. He put together a strong season by logging 187 innings and leading the league in games started at 32. By the end, his 3.37 ERA and 122 ERA+ earned him a sixth-place finish in Cy Young voting. Fast forward to 2022, and he was well on his way to another solid season before being traded to New York. The rest is history.
Come to the present, and in 2024, there’s immense uncertainty on which Montas you’re getting if you’re Cincinnati. He is returning from shoulder surgery that limited him to his small sample size with New York, leaving even more question marks. The Reds lost Sonny Gray to the Cardinals this offseason, so they’re hoping Montas can replicate the New York to Cincinnati magic that worked for Gray. Who knows, maybe the Yankees become a farm team for the Reds.
In the end, this is only a one-year trial run. If Frankie implodes, you cut your losses, but if it works out, you can extend him a qualifying offer to receive draft pick compensation if he goes elsewhere. You can also attempt to bring him back. The Reds clearly feel good about their young, exciting team and continue to be buyers. Not too shabby.
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