As the clock ticked down to the 2024 trade deadline, the Detroit Tigers decided to trade Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers signaling that the team was forfeiting its season. With a disappointing 52-57 record and a mere 1% chance of reaching the postseason, few argued their sentiments.
However, by August 10th, with the Tigers languishing in 4th place, 13.5 games back with a record of 55-63, few could have imagined that this moment would ignite a remarkable turnaround.
From that low point, the Tigers dramatically roared back (pardon the pun), finishing with an outstanding 31-11 record—the best in Major League Baseball during that stretch.
Their resurgence propelled them into the Wild Card Series against Houston and even saw them battle through to Game 5 of the Division Series in Cleveland. While they ultimately fell just short of a matchup against the New York Yankees for the American League pennant, their performance reignited fans' hopes and excitement.
This rapid resurgence positions the Tigers uniquely, combining payroll flexibility with a wealth of youthful talent — both at the Major League and Minor League levels. The team seems to be transitioning from a rebuilding phase to a promising era, fueled by aggressive prospect promotions like Dillon Dingler and Jackson Jobe just weeks before the postseason.
But at the heart of this team are two standout players: starting pitcher Tarik Skubal and outfielder Riley Greene.
While Tarik—represented by polarizing super agent Scott Boras,—is likely to explore free agency, Riley is primed for a well-deserved extension. Riley, who just turned 24 in September, concluded a strong season with an impressive slash line of .262/.348/.479, resulting in an .827 OPS that ranked 12th in the American League and 7th among all outfielders across MLB.
His performance is supported by advanced metrics as well, revealing a true talent despite a .329 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that suggests some good fortune. With 57 extra-base hits—his career high—and only two double plays grounded into all season, he showcased exceptional improvement.
Central to his success in his third big league season is an evolved swing path that has noticeably enhanced his launch and fly ball rates, boosting them to 27.7%, up from 21.8% and 19.3%, respectively.
Additionally, mechanical tweaks to his batting stance is generating significant power with his .559 slugging percentage against fastballs and .404 against off-speed pitches.
Riley is also consistently effective whether at home or on the road and shines brightest when the Tigers put runners on base.
Defensively, the Tigers initially tasked Greene with center field duties until Parker Meadows, a superior defender, took the reins, shifting Riley to left. This move has proven beneficial; Riley quickly emerged as one of the league’s premier left-field defenders, even earning the Fielding Bible’s Left Fielder of the Year award. His agility, quick reactions, and reads—including his ability to dive and leap for catches—transform him into a plus fielder.
While he may not be the fastest on the bases, he’s smart and calculated, creating run value with his career on-base percentage of .340.
Entering 2025 with just 2.110 years of service time, Greene finds himself in pre-arbitration status. This scenario lessens the urgency for President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris and General Manager Jeff Greenberg to act hastily. Projections indicate he'd earn around $800,000 in his age-24 season, as noted by Spotrac. Additionally, his Super Two eligibility appears unlikely, cutting off his odds at a year-early arbitration hearing.
To formulate a winning extension model for Greene, we look at comparable players such as Yordan Álvarez and Corbin Carroll, who secured extensions that reflect their immense potential. The future of the Tigers—and the exciting development of Greene—could hinge on contract negotiations that reward talent and fortify the team’s bright outlook.
At 25 years old, one year older than Riley, Yordan Álvarez’s historic six-year, $115MM extension in 2022 was signed. It is the second-largest contract the Houston Astros have ever inked, and notably,
underscored just how elite his offensive production is considering Álvarez’s defensive limitations in the outfield. Now, he primarily slots in as designated hitter for an annually contending team.
Riley has more upside defensively, and while his offensive profile dwarfs the behemoth that is Yordan, he produced at an above average rate in ’24.
The next blueprint on the table is Corbin Carroll’s surprise extension in Arizona in 2023. Conversely, at signing, Corbin was a year younger than Riley at 23-years-old. This, too, was a record-breaking extension at 8 years, $111MM being that no player has ever received a contract this large with less than 100 days of service time. Corbin was largely unproven, having played in only 32 MLB games. The deal also comes packed with incentives tied to MVP finishes that will increase his annual salaries however, giving Corbin little reason to slow down during the life of the deal.
At roughly $14MM AAV, this would be the floor for a Riley Greene extension if Detroit decides to buy out more of his free agent years. Greene’s interest may reflect that of an Álvarez type deal, though, which hovers around $20MM AAV and covers fewer precious free agent years.
A fair offer, to me, is a 7-year, $126MM deal with no options but includes incentives for All-Star selections and MVP awards, keeping Riley hungry during his late 20’s a period when, hopefully, his game is developed and he is a household name in the sport.
Projected to be a 2030 free agent at the blossoming age of 29, this deal delays his free agency to his age 31 season while he can be primed to earn another sizable payday. This is a win for both the player, who is handed the keys to the franchise combined with flexibility later in his prime, and for the front office who locks up a cornerstone during foundational years.
We love these kind of deals. Get it done, Detroit!
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